Fermi Paradox, Peacock Tails and Drake Equations
Reading the most recent New Scientist (25 May) I came across an article
which has interesting implications for SETI and the like, as well as
for various SF.
Apparently geneticists have discovered that intelligence is mostly
determined by the X chromosome. Which lends enormous credence to
one of my favourite theories as to why we have such big brains, and
maybe resolves the differences between Drake's Equations and Fermi's
Paradox.
(Drake's Equation is the one about X planets with probabilities of
life forming, muliplied by chance of life becoming intelligent, and
so on, to give a total number of civilisations in the Galaxy.
Fermi's paradox is simple - it answer's Drake's Equation with
the question "where are they?")
My favourite theory is this: we evolved big brains to chat up girls.
(It's not my theory - someone put it forward about ten years ago.)
What the X chromosome thing shows is that brain-fitness is going
to be more variable in boys than girls, because boys have only one
X chromosome, and girls have a spare. This applies to both good
and bad traits, so boys' intelligences will tend to scatter wider
across the range than girls' intelligences. Which also means that
smart girls breed true - a good reason to consider them to be
attractive mates. As if you needed a good reason ... :-)
What does that mean for SETI? Well, if our huge brains serve the
same purpose as a peacock's huge tail - what percentage of bird
species have tails as big as peacocks? Not many. Which suggests
that intelligent life is unlikely to evolve naturally, and that
even if the Galaxy is teeming with life, most of it is stupid.
SF seems to fall into two groups: Man as the dominant (or only)
species in the Galaxy; and Man as just another species among many.
The "peacock's tail" theory of intelligence makes the first SF
sound more credible.
Which would make it a lonely Galaxy. :-(
Thoughts?